Bay County government
An estimate of how Amendment 3's larger homestead exemption could change Bay County government's ad valorem property tax revenue, based on 2026 property values and 2025 tax rates.
These are estimates, not forecasts. They hold today's values and tax rates constant to show the effect of the new exemption by itself. Property values, the number of homesteads and tax rates will all change. Property taxes are also not the only source of revenue for Bay County government. Read the full list of limitations below.
Illustrative estimates only. These figures are meant to illustrate how Amendment 3 could affect Bay County government based on current data. They are not official. For official information about the county's budget, tax rates and revenue, contact Bay County government directly. For official property values and exemptions, contact the Bay County Property Appraiser.
Summary of estimates
This page covers the three operating property taxes Bay County government levies in the 2025 millage table, grouped by where they apply: the countywide levy (5.4362 mills, paid throughout Bay County, inside and outside cities); the mosquito control levy (0.2000 mills, paid in parts of unincorporated Bay County and in the cities of Callaway, Lynn Haven, Mexico Beach, Panama City, Parker and Springfield); and the fire MSTU (1.3800 mills, paid in unincorporated Bay County).
2026 county ad valorem revenue$183.8 millionAll county levies, 95% of a combined gross levy of $193.5 million
2028 estimate$152.6 millionWith homestead assessed values rising by up to 3% a year, capped at just value
Estimated change by 2028−$31.2 million−17.0% from 2026. If homestead values stay flat: −$32.6 million (−17.7%)
Homesteads countywide46,08935.1% of 131,336 parcels
Countywide levy (5.4362 mills)
Paid on taxable property throughout Bay County, inside and outside cities. Estimated change by 2028: −$27.0 million (−16.6%). Homestead assessed values rise by up to 3% a year (never above each home's just value); all other property stays at its 2026 taxable value.
| Year | Homestead taxable value | Other taxable value | Total taxable value | Gross levy | Budget basis (95%) | Change from 2026 (95%) | Percent change |
|---|
| 2026 | $7,786,708,320 | $23,610,239,787 | $31,396,948,107 | $170,680,089 | $162,146,085 | — | — |
| 2027 (estimate) | $4,608,579,128 | $23,610,239,787 | $28,218,818,915 | $153,403,143 | $145,732,986 | −$16,413,099 | −10.1% |
| 2028 (estimate) | $2,567,238,577 | $23,610,239,787 | $26,177,478,364 | $142,306,008 | $135,190,707 | −$26,955,377 | −16.6% |
If homestead assessed values stay at 2026 levels
| Year | Homestead taxable value | Other taxable value | Total taxable value | Gross levy | Budget basis (95%) | Change from 2026 (95%) | Percent change |
|---|
| 2026 | $7,786,708,320 | $23,610,239,787 | $31,396,948,107 | $170,680,089 | $162,146,085 | — | — |
| 2027 (estimate) | $4,438,146,232 | $23,610,239,787 | $28,048,386,019 | $152,476,636 | $144,852,804 | −$17,293,281 | −10.7% |
| 2028 (estimate) | $2,348,638,245 | $23,610,239,787 | $25,958,878,032 | $141,117,653 | $134,061,770 | −$28,084,315 | −17.3% |
Mosquito control (0.2000 mills)
Paid on 81,965 parcels in parts of unincorporated Bay County and in the cities of Callaway, Lynn Haven, Mexico Beach, Panama City, Parker and Springfield. Estimated change by 2028: −$696,400 (−27.4%). Homestead assessed values rise by up to 3% a year (never above each home's just value); all other property stays at its 2026 taxable value.
| Year | Homestead taxable value | Other taxable value | Total taxable value | Gross levy | Budget basis (95%) | Change from 2026 (95%) | Percent change |
|---|
| 2026 | $5,086,796,747 | $8,315,312,057 | $13,402,108,804 | $2,680,422 | $2,546,401 | — | — |
| 2027 (estimate) | $2,792,163,747 | $8,315,312,057 | $11,107,475,804 | $2,221,495 | $2,110,420 | −$435,980 | −17.1% |
| 2028 (estimate) | $1,421,300,506 | $8,315,312,057 | $9,736,612,563 | $1,947,323 | $1,849,956 | −$696,444 | −27.4% |
If homestead assessed values stay at 2026 levels
| Year | Homestead taxable value | Other taxable value | Total taxable value | Gross levy | Budget basis (95%) | Change from 2026 (95%) | Percent change |
|---|
| 2026 | $5,086,796,747 | $8,315,312,057 | $13,402,108,804 | $2,680,422 | $2,546,401 | — | — |
| 2027 (estimate) | $2,684,009,590 | $8,315,312,057 | $10,999,321,647 | $2,199,864 | $2,089,871 | −$456,530 | −17.9% |
| 2028 (estimate) | $1,295,961,239 | $8,315,312,057 | $9,611,273,296 | $1,922,255 | $1,826,142 | −$720,259 | −28.3% |
Fire MSTU (1.3800 mills)
A municipal services taxing unit for fire protection, paid on 65,051 parcels in unincorporated Bay County. Estimated change by 2028: −$3.6 million (−18.7%). Homestead assessed values rise by up to 3% a year (never above each home's just value); all other property stays at its 2026 taxable value.
| Year | Homestead taxable value | Other taxable value | Total taxable value | Gross levy | Budget basis (95%) | Change from 2026 (95%) | Percent change |
|---|
| 2026 | $4,385,321,139 | $10,183,543,464 | $14,568,864,603 | $20,105,033 | $19,099,781 | — | — |
| 2027 (estimate) | $2,770,697,810 | $10,183,543,464 | $12,954,241,274 | $17,876,853 | $16,983,010 | −$2,116,771 | −11.1% |
| 2028 (estimate) | $1,655,404,436 | $10,183,543,464 | $11,838,947,900 | $16,337,748 | $15,520,861 | −$3,578,921 | −18.7% |
If homestead assessed values stay at 2026 levels
| Year | Homestead taxable value | Other taxable value | Total taxable value | Gross levy | Budget basis (95%) | Change from 2026 (95%) | Percent change |
|---|
| 2026 | $4,385,321,139 | $10,183,543,464 | $14,568,864,603 | $20,105,033 | $19,099,781 | — | — |
| 2027 (estimate) | $2,675,599,913 | $10,183,543,464 | $12,859,143,377 | $17,745,618 | $16,858,337 | −$2,241,445 | −11.7% |
| 2028 (estimate) | $1,527,238,483 | $10,183,543,464 | $11,710,781,947 | $16,160,879 | $15,352,835 | −$3,746,946 | −19.6% |
What drives the estimate
As with the cities and towns, the size of the change depends mostly on how much of the taxable value comes from homesteads. Property without a homestead exemption, such as rentals, businesses, second homes and vacant land, keeps its taxable value under the amendment.
Countywide, homesteads make up 24.8% of the taxable value for the countywide levies in 2026. Within the mosquito control area, they make up 38.0%, so the estimated percentage change for that levy is larger. Among the six cities that levy a property tax, the homestead share ranges from 11.6% to 44.4%.
The table below shows where the change in the countywide taxable value comes from. Unincorporated Bay County has 46.4% of the county's taxable value and accounts for an estimated 52.3% of the change. The City of Panama City Beach has 27.2% of the county's taxable value and accounts for an estimated 10.7% of the change.
| Area | County taxable value, 2026 | Share of county taxable value | Homestead share of area's taxable value | Change in area's taxable value by 2028 | Share of countywide change |
|---|
| Unincorporated Bay County | $14,568,864,603 | 46.4% | 30.1% | −18.7% | 52.3% |
| City of Panama City Beach | $8,531,601,002 | 27.2% | 10.2% | −6.5% | 10.7% |
| City of Panama City | $3,765,063,465 | 12.0% | 28.5% | −20.2% | 14.6% |
| City of Lynn Haven | $1,793,129,441 | 5.7% | 44.4% | −34.5% | 11.8% |
| City of Callaway | $1,013,107,560 | 3.2% | 34.3% | −30.7% | 6.0% |
| City of Mexico Beach | $986,270,665 | 3.1% | 11.6% | −6.2% | 1.2% |
| City of Springfield | $425,954,350 | 1.4% | 26.4% | −25.2% | 2.1% |
| City of Parker | $312,957,021 | 1.0% | 29.0% | −24.1% | 1.4% |
Estimates use homestead assessed values rising by up to 3% a year, capped at just value. Areas are based on each parcel's tax district.
Property taxes are one of several revenue sources
Florida counties also receive money from other sources. Depending on the county, these can include state revenue sharing, the local government half-cent sales tax, local option sales and fuel taxes, communications services taxes, non-ad valorem assessments, franchise fees, charges for services, and state and federal grants. The mix differs from county to county. Bay County's adopted budget shows its full set of revenue sources and how much each provides.
The Beach Mosquito Control District, the water management district and the School Board levy their own property taxes. They are separate taxing authorities and are not included on this page.
Limitations of these estimates
- Values will change. Market values, new construction and demolitions will all change the county's taxable value. Here, property without a homestead exemption stays at its 2026 value, and homestead assessed values either stay flat or rise by up to 3% a year, but not above each home's 2026 just value. Homes already assessed at their just value don't rise at all, and just values will themselves change with the market. The Save Our Homes cap for 2026 was 2.7%.
- The number of homesteads will change. When a homestead sells, its assessed value resets to market value for the new owner. New owners may or may not apply for a homestead exemption. Owners who were not Florida residents on Dec. 31, 2026, receive a $50,000 non-school exemption instead of the larger amounts. None of these changes are modeled.
- Tax rates may change. The county commission sets the county's millage rates each year. These estimates hold the 2025 rates constant to show the effect of the exemption alone.
- Annexations move property from unincorporated areas into cities, which changes the tax base of county levies that apply only in some areas. They are not modeled.
- Other parts of Amendment 3 are not modeled, including the new 5% annual cap on non-school assessment increases for property without a homestead exemption.
- Discounts and unpaid taxes. Property owners who pay early get a discount under section 197.162, Florida Statutes: 4% in November, 3% in December, 2% in January and 1% in February, with no discount in March. Some taxes are paid late or not at all, and value adjustment board decisions can lower a property's value after the roll is certified. Section 200.065, Florida Statutes, requires taxing authorities to use at least 95% of their taxable value when setting tax rates, and the Florida Department of Revenue's 2026 TRIM Compliance Workbook says each millage rate must include at least 95% of ad valorem proceeds in the budget. This page shows both the gross levy and 95% of it, called the budget basis. Actual collections vary from year to year and can be above or below 95%.
- Real property only. These figures cover land and buildings on the tax roll. Taxes on tangible personal property, such as business equipment, and on centrally assessed property, such as railroads, are not included. That property has no homestead exemption, so including it would add revenue that Amendment 3 does not change.
- Collection and assessment costs are not subtracted. Commissions paid to the tax collector and the county's share of the property appraiser's budget are not included.
- Operating millage only. Any voter-approved debt service millage is not included.
- Parcel locations come from the tax district codes on the same tax roll.
- This page does not predict budgets, services or how Bay County may respond. For official figures, see Bay County's budget documents and the Bay County Property Appraiser.
Sources and method
Property values and exemptions: The Bay County Property Appraiser's 2026 final tax roll, as published by the Florida Department of Revenue. Tax rates: the 2025 millage rates the Florida Department of Revenue posts for Bay County (2026 rates by tax district were not readily available). Parcel tax districts: the tax district codes on the same tax roll.
For each homestead, the estimated taxable value is its assessed value minus the new homestead exemption ($150,000 in 2027, $250,000 in 2028) and any other exemptions, but not less than zero. The gross levy is total taxable value times the millage rate, for the parcels where each levy applies. The budget basis is 95% of the gross levy.
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